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17 May 2023, Wednesday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #517
War in Ukraine: Day 447
By Padmashree Anandhan
WAR ON THE GROUND
On 16 May, Ukraine’s commander of land forces Oleksandr Syrskyi commented on how Bakhmut has become a trap for Russian forces. He described Wagner Groups as rats walking into the Bakhmut trap. Syrskyi appreciated Ukraine’s ability in counterattacks in areas near Bakhmut despite Russia’s abundant resources. Earlier Ukraine claimed on pushing back Russian forces back into north and south-west by “several kilometres.”
On 16 May, Ukraine’s Military Intelligence reported on the number of Russian deployed in Ukraine. In the report it revealed that close to 400,000 Russians had been installed in Ukraine, of which 370,000 were soldiers and 20,000 belonged to Russia’s elite paramilitary unit. It observed that Russia had never involved foreigner fighters but have used convicts as replacement.
THE MOSCOW VIEW
Claims by Russia
On 16 May, Russian defence ministry claimed on carrying out a precision strike using Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile to destroy Ukraine’s Patriot defence system. No further details on attack were revealed. In also confirmed on hitting on Ukraine’s staged munitions, weapon, military hardware received from the West.
On 16 May, RT reported on Russia’s defence ministry claim on intercepting UK’s storm shadow missiles and 22 drones. This includes HIMARS multiple rocket launchers and anti-radar missiles. It is the first time Russia reported on striking down storm shadow missiles. UK confirmed the supply of the cruise missile in the previous week which has a range capacity of 300 kilometres.
THE WEST VIEW
Responses from the US and Europe
On 16 May, aligning with the pledges made to Ukraine, the US delivered 31 tanks to Germany’s military training centre. This will be used by Germany in training the Ukraine crews. According to a spokesperson from Pentagon: “I can confirm that the 31 M1 Abrams training tanks have arrived at Grafenwöhr, Germany in preparation for subsequent training of Ukrainian tank crews.”
On 16 May, Deutsche Welle reported on the upcoming Council of Europe Summit in Iceland which will focus on Ukraine war. Important European leaders from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s President Georgia Meloni, European Commission and Council President are expected to participate. Although the Council of Europe does not have a “high-stake profile” as the EU, it stands as a protector of human rights and rule of law in Europe.
On 16 May, the UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Netherlands’ Prime Minister Mark Rutte jointly promised to form an “international coalition” to give fighter jet support to Ukraine. According to the spokesperson from Sunak’s office stated that under the coalition, Ukraine will be boosted with combat air capabilities, and training capacity to procure F-16 jets. The move comes after Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Sunak on 15 May.
References
“‘Like Rats into a Mousetrap’ – Russians Trying to Advance in Bakhmut Despite Ukrainian Gains,” The Kyiv Post, 17 May 2023
“Patriot missile base in Kiev destroyed by hypersonic strike – Moscow,” RT, 16 May 2023
“Seven UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles shot down – Moscow,” RT, 16 May 2023
“Ukraine updates: Heavy Russian air raid repelled, Kyiv says,” Deutsche Welle, 16 May 2023
IN BRIEF
By Nithyashree RB and Sreeja JS
ALBANIA
Government confirms return of Albanian prisoners sent by the UK
On 17 May, according to BBC News, the Albanian government confirmed that the UK paid the Albanian prisoners 1500 EUR to go back to Albania. Some returned to Albania voluntarily while some were forcibly sent. The prisoners were released under the UK's Early Release Scheme (ERS) which provides a financial incentive to those who agree to be deported and would not appeal. In December 2022, the UK and the Albanian government signed an agreement to stop illegal migration. Ever since the deportation flights to Albania have increased. According to the UK government’s Home Office, more than 1000 people returned to Albania. Albanian police said most of the deported Albanians were foreign offenders in the UK prisons and were forcibly sent. (Lucy Williamson, “Albanian prisoners paid by UK government to return home,” BBC News, 17 May 2023)
ITALY
Floods in the Emilia-Romagna region kills eight people
On 17 May, according to Vice President Irene Piola, eight people died due to the floods in the Emilia-Romagna region due to a torrential downpour. Thousands were evacuated. The Italian Civil Protection Minister Nello Musumeci said that the rainfall was twice the amount of the average rainfall in 36 hours. The Formula One race which was to be held in Imola is cancelled due to the floods. (Crispian Balmer, “Eight dead and thousands evacuated as floods batter northern Italy,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)
Stellantis urges the government to renegotiate Brexit rules
On 17 May, The Guardian reported that Sellantis urged the government to renegotiate rules in the Brexit deal that otherwise could force it to shut its UK operations, putting thousands of jobs at risk. The company said they can no longer comply with the rule that 45 per cent of the parts by value should be sourced in the UK or EU by 2024. This means that the electric vans from the Ellesmere Port site will face tariffs of 10 per cent on their export to mainland Europe from 2024 because of the reduced supply of locally sourced parts. (Jasper Jolly and Mark Sweney, “Vauxhall maker says Brexit deal must be renegotiated or it could shut UK plant,” The Guardian, 17 May 2023)
TURKEY
Last ship leaves Ukraine under the grain deal agreed till May
On 17 May, according to the UN, the last ship, DSM Capella carrying 30,000 tonnes of corn left the Chornomorsk port to Turkey. The deal ends on 18 May. Russia is still waiting to revive the deal unless its demands are met. Moscow says that it has obstacles in grain and fertilisers and exports but the UN has agreed to help with its agricultural shipments in 2022. The Black Sea Grain deal was signed in July 2022 for a period of 120 days and was extended up to another 120 days. In March 2018, Moscow shortened the extension to 60 days. (Michelle Nochols, “Last ship leaves Ukraine as fate of Black Sea grain deal in Russia’s hands,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)
Supreme election council announces the contenders for the second round of elections
On 16 May, according to BBC News, the supreme election council announced the contenders for the presidential election that is to be held on 28 May. On 14 May, in the first round of elections, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan secured 49.51 per cent. The opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu secured 44.88 per cent. The third opposition leader Sinan Ogan secured 5.17 per cent and his supporters are likely to vote for the opposition. The Erdogan-led Justice and Development Party (AKP) party won 267 seats in the parliament. The Kilicdaroglu-led opposition party, Republican People’s Party (CHP) won 169 seats in the first round of elections. (Paul Kirby, “Turkey’s presidential race to be decided in run-off,” BBC News, 16 May 2023)
UKRAINE
Air force denies the destruction of the Patriot missile defence system
On 16 May, Russia claimed that its Kinzhal missile has destroyed the US Patriot missile defence system in Kyiv. On 17 May, Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat denied the Russian claims. The Patriot missile defence system is capable of countering aircraft, cruise and ballistic missiles and launchers are aided with radars. Kyiv said that it had shot down six Kinzhal Missiles and Moscow denied the claims. (Olena Harmash, “Ukraine denies Russia destroyed Patriot missile defence system,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)
US’s Patriot likely to be damaged by a Russian missile says Reuters
On 16 May, according to Reuters, the US-made Patriot defence system was likely to be damaged by a Russian missile strike but not destroyed and could be repaired. Patriot is one of the sophisticated air defence systems supplied by the West to help Ukraine defend against Russian air strikes. It has launchers, radar, and other support vehicles that can attack aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. (Idrees Ali, Phil Stewart and Mike Stone, “Patriot missile defense system in Ukraine likely damaged - US sources,” Reuters, 16 May 2023)
CLIMATE CHANGE
UK to accomplish its climate adaptation plan against flooding by 2050
On 17 May, the UK government said that it will accelerate the existing climate adaptation plans to improve the defences against the floods. The climate adaptation program was targeted to be completed by 2065 but now the government will complete it by 2050. The move was a response to a new climate model. The model asserts that flooding from the Thames estuary in London is highly possible due to rising sea levels and a warming climate. The revised plan will be published by today. (William James, “UK accelerates London flood define plan to counter rising climate risk,” Reuters, 17 May 2023)
INTERNATIONAL
Liz Truss visits Taiwan, China calls it a dangerous political show
On 15 May, Liz Truss arrived in Taiwan for a five-day visit. Truss stated that she came to show her support for Taiwan, which is on the frontlines of the global battle for freedom under China’s threat. In her controversial speech at the Prospect Foundation, she called for an “economic Nato” to fight against China. She urged Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to take action against China, shut down UK-based Confucius institutes, and refrain from restarting economic dialogue with China. She is one of the top leaders who visited Taiwan recently. She was heavily criticized by the Chinese Embassy in London, which called her trip a dangerous political show that would only harm the UK. It also called upon Truss to correct her wrongdoing and stop supporting Taiwan and its ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces. (Nadeem Badshah, “Chinese embassy calls Liz Truss’s trip to Taiwan a ‘dangerous political stunt’ The Guardian, 16 May 2023. Helen Davidson, “Liz Truss in Taiwan calls for ‘economic Nato’ to challenge China,” The Guardian, 16 May 2023)